What is going to happen now?
In July 2016 the Commission published its low emission mobility strategy which says:
“The EU will also need to introduce measures to actively curb carbon dioxide emissions from lorries, buses and coaches. Other parts of the world, such as the United States, China, Japan and Canada, have already introduced standards, and some European manufacturers participate in these schemes. Europe cannot lag behind.”
“This Commission will, therefore, speed up analytical work on design options for carbon dioxide emission standards for such vehicles and will launch a public consultation to prepare the ground for a proposal during this mandate. Given the average lifetime of a lorry of about 10 years, vehicles sold in 2020 will still be on European roads in 2030. In order to be able to make swift progress different options for standards will be considered, including for engines only or for the whole vehicles, with the objective of curbing emissions well before 2030.”
So the European Strategy for Low-Emission Mobility gives the Commission a clear mandate to develop truck fuel efficiency or CO2 standards during its current mandate. That means the standards need to be proposed well before 2019. If the Commission gives this adequate priority it should be able to present a proposal by the end of 2017.
The Commission has already started consulting with industry, researchers and NGOs. It will need to create a team of experts that can write a proper impact analysis and regulatory proposal. In this proposal the EC will have to address things like which type of trucks to regulate, what the baseline is, how much improvement it wants and when standards take effect.
The Commission wants the new standard to lead to CO2 cuts well before 2030 which means the standard will have to kick in around 2025.